Aalberts (AALB) releases their 2012 figures
tomorrow before the open.
Revenues: On the Bloomberg Businessweek
website, consensus estimates show revenues expected at EUR 2.0bn (2011: EUR 1.9
bn, H1 2012: 1.0bn). The range of expectations is EUR 2.0 – 2.1bn. Currently
my draft preliminary analysis of AALB indicates a revenue of EUR 1.968bn
slightly below the forecast range and just a 1.60% rise over 2011.
EPS: On the Bloomberg Businessweek
website, consensus estimates show EPS before amortisation (I presume before
amortisation as it seems high) of EUR 1.41 (2011: EUR 1.36, H1 2012: 0.72). The
range of expectations is EUR 1.37 – 1.55. My draft preliminary analysis of
AALB indicates EPS at EUR 1.35, which is slightly below the forecast range as
well.
No acquisitions in
2012: Unusually for
the company, there were no significant acquisitions made by AALB during the
year which should enable investors to glean a better look at the organic progress
being made by the business (the pro-forma revenues for its 2011 acquisitions
can be seen in the 2011 annual report).
Flow Control (FC) –
70% of sales in 2011:
Poor European construction figures indicate that the progress of Flow Control (FC)
could be limited, the US could mitigate this effect somewhat. I will be looking
for more signs of progress on improving margins in the US as the integration of
Conbraco continues. It will be interesting to see if the good progress in
district heating, gas, industry and beer and soft drink markets, seen in H1, can continue and offset the
challenging residential and commercial markets in several European geographies.
Industrial Services
(IS) – 30% of sales in 2011: Industrial Services (IS), which is a primarily European division, could
have been impacted quite strongly in H2 2012 as GDP trended
downwards. The Q3 trading statement indicated stable but lower volumes in IS and
I expect this to have continued to be the case in Q4.
The results will be a good test for the
company. As transparency in AALB’s business is limited it will be interesting
to see how the company has coped with the European downturn in H2 2012, which will be very useful to assess the company´s prospects going forward.
The document with my draft analysis attached to a
previous post can be seen via the following link:
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